Climate Security

It is now accepted that the effects of climate change are ‘threat multipliers’ to international peace and security. Experts estimate that the risk of armed conflict increases by 10-20% with every half-degree increase in local temperatures.

 Climate change is rarely the sole cause of conflict, but is part of a complex and nuanced ‘multiplier’ in precarious situations, further undermining economic, social, environmental and, therefore, political stability. Food insecurity, water scarcity, and resource competition can cause mass migration and prompt clashes over resources or bolster the appeal of non-state armed groups. In turn, conflict and political instability can further contribute to climate change, for example, by illegal logging in rebel held areas.

In 2020, approximately 70% of the ICC Prosecutor’s caseload intersected with issues of climate-security as either a cause, feature, or effect of the mass crimes under investigation.